How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Karmiotissa to win 36%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Karmiotissa and 1.2 from Omonia Aradippou, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Karmiotissa to win. Karmiotissa are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.2), and we make them about 37% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.10, which works out at about 32 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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