What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Omonia Nicosia and 0.9 from Apollon Limassol, so Omonia Nicosia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Omonia Nicosia to win. Omonia Nicosia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.9), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.74, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Omonia Nicosia have won two of their last five.
✓Apollon Limassol have won three of their last five.
