Omonia Nicosia v Apollon Limassol: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Omonia Nicosia to win 60%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.8 goals from Omonia Nicosia and 0.9 from Apollon Limassol, so Omonia Nicosia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Omonia Nicosia come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Omonia Nicosia to win. Omonia Nicosia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.9), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.72, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.