AEL Limassol v Nea Salamis: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made AEL Limassol to win 50%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

AEL Limassol host Nea Salamis at the home ground on 11 September in the Cyprus First Division. Both clubs sit in the relegation zone. AEL are eighth out of fourteen, three points behind the safety spot and with a –4 goal difference. One place above them, APOEL Nicosia are level on points, while Olympiakos Nicosia sit just below with one point fewer. Nea Salamis are twelfth, only one point clear of the drop and with a –3 goal difference. Karmiotissa sit directly above them on the same points, and Anorthosis are one point behind. The two sides are therefore fighting to climb out of the bottom half, and a win could move each a step closer to safety.

AEL Limassol have not been able to string many positive results together. In their last three games they lost 3-0 to Celtic, then fell 4-1 at the hands of Kilmarnock, and most recently were beaten 2-0 by a side not listed here. Those three defeats add up to nine goals conceded and only one scored. The run shows a defence that is leaking goals and an attack that has struggled to find the net. The team sits with a negative goal difference and needs to tighten up at the back if they are to turn the tide.

Nea Salamis have also endured a rough patch. Their recent fixtures include a 2-1 loss to a team not named, a 3-2 defeat against another opponent, and a 1-0 defeat in their most recent match. That last game was a narrow loss, with the visitors keeping the score close but failing to equalise. Over those three games they have scored three goals while conceding six. The side is also leaking more than it scores, and the recent 1-0 defeat underlines how thin the margins have become for them.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be low-scoring affairs with both sides finding it hard to break through. The numbers we have for this encounter suggest a total of three goals, with AEL averaging 1.8 and Nea Salamis 1.2. That points to a match where the home side should have a slight edge in attack, but both defenses are likely to be tested. Expect a tight contest, possibly decided by a single goal, rather than a goal-fest.

We back AEL Limassol to win. The price of 2.10 matches our view of the game and sits close to what we think is realistic. AEL are the stronger side on the numbers, and we see them having about a 52 % chance of taking all three points. The pick looks clean because the alternative would be to chase a higher price elsewhere, which does not reflect the balance of the match. For the bet to go wrong, AEL would need to fail to score at all while Nea Salamis manage a clean sheet, or the game could end in a draw if both defenses hold firm. In that case the price would not pay out.