What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from AEL Limassol and 1.2 from Nea Salamis, so AEL Limassol come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: AEL Limassol to win. AEL Limassol are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.2), and we make them about 52% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
