Pafos FC v Olympiakos Nicosia: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Pafos FC to win 71%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Pafos FC host Olympiakos Nicosia at home in the Cyprus First Division on 7 September 2026. Pafos sit sixth in a 14-team table, three points clear of the team above them, APOEL Nicosia, and level with AEL Limassol below. Olympiakos are eighth, just one point away from the relegation places, with AEL Limassol two points ahead and Nea Salamis on the same points behind. Both sides are close in points, but Pafos have a better goal difference at +3 compared with Olympiakos’ even record. The three points at stake could move Pafos up a place or keep Olympiakos hovering near the drop zone.

Pafos have been in decent form lately. They beat their previous opponents 2-0, then followed that with a 3-1 victory, and most recently secured a 1-0 win. Those three results give them six goals scored and only one conceded in the last three games, leaving their goal difference at +5 over that run. The string of wins shows a side that can both score and keep a clean sheet, and it adds confidence heading into this match.

Olympiakos Nicosia have struggled to find the net. Their recent fixtures ended 0-3 against Celtic, 1-4 to Kilmarnock, and a 0-2 loss to another opponent. In total they have scored just one goal while conceding nine in the last three outings. The most recent 0-2 defeat was a clear sign that they are finding it hard to break down defenses and are leaking goals at will. Their goal tally of zero in the last two games underlines a lack of attacking threat.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be low-scoring affairs, with the home side usually coming out on top. Given the current numbers – Pafos averaging about 2.2 goals per game and Olympiakos only 0.6 – we expect a similar pattern. Pafos should be able to control the tempo and find the net, while Olympiakos are likely to be on the back foot and struggle to create chances. The match should therefore be decided by Pafos’s ability to score and keep a clean sheet.

We pick Pafos FC to win. The price of 1.41 matches our view of the game and offers a decent return for a side that looks clearly stronger on the numbers. Our chance of this result happening is about 71 %. For the pick to go wrong, Olympiakos would need to find a way to score early and then hold on, or Pafos would have to drop points after a lapse in defence. As long as Pafos keep their recent defensive solidity and continue to find the net, the win looks the cleaner play.