What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Aris Limassol and 1.5 from Omonia Nicosia, so Omonia Nicosia come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Omonia Nicosia to win. Omonia Nicosia shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.5), and we make them about 49% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.94, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Aris Limassol to spoil this. We make it about 49% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
