How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Omonia Nicosia to win 82%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.6 goals from Omonia Nicosia and 0.6 from Omonia Aradippou, so Omonia Nicosia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Omonia Nicosia come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Omonia Nicosia to win. Omonia Nicosia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.6-0.6), and we make them about 84% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 82 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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