What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Omonia 29 Maiou and 2.3 from AEK Larnaca, so AEK Larnaca come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Omonia 29 Maiou come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: AEK Larnaca to win. AEK Larnaca shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-2.3), and we make them about 73% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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