How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made AEK Larnaca to win 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Omonia 29 Maiou host AEK Larnaca at home in the Cyprus First Division on 18 September. Omonia sit seventh out of fourteen, five points from three games, with a +3 goal difference. They are sitting in the part of the table that threatens relegation. AEK Larnaca are second, six points from three games and a +4 goal difference, just one point behind leaders Pafos FC. The clash pits a side fighting to stay clear of the drop against a team pushing for a top-four finish. Both clubs will be keen to add three points, but the stakes are much higher for Omonia.
Omonia’s recent form has been mixed. In their last three matches they have taken five points, but the exact scores are not listed, so we can only say the run has left them with a modest points haul and a positive goal balance. The three results keep them perched just above the relegation line, but they have not built any clear momentum. Their goal difference of +3 shows they can score and keep a clean sheet, yet the narrow margin suggests they are still vulnerable.
AEK Larnaca come into the game on a decent run of eight matches, three wins, four draws and one loss. Their most recent fixtures were a 1-0 defeat at home to Pafos FC, a 4-1 away win over Nea Salamis, a 0-0 draw away at Crystal Palace, a 1-0 home win over Shkendija, a 1-1 away draw with BK Hacken and a 0-0 away draw with HNK Rijeka. On the road in their last five games they have won twice and drawn three, without a loss. In those eight games they have scored seven goals and let in three, keeping five clean sheets while failing to find the net in four matches. Their last outing was five days ago, a narrow 1-0 loss at home to Pafos FC.
Our pick is AEK Larnaca to win. The numbers give them an average of 2.3 goals compared with 0.8 for Omonia, and they score in 87 % of their games while Omonia score in only 46 %. The price of 1.50 is longer than our own reading, which puts AEK’s chance of winning at about 72 %. Backing AEK outright looks the simplest way to profit. For the result to go wrong, Omonia would need to score early and hold on, or AEK would have to fall into one of the four games where they failed to score. Otherwise the odds favour a Larnaca victory.
Recent results
AEK Larnaca have won two of the last two meetings.
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