How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Pafos FC to win 74%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Pafos FC and 0.7 from AEL Limassol, so Pafos FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Pafos FC to win. Pafos FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.7), and we make them about 76% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Pafos FC have won five of the last five meetings.
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