How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Guayaquil City to win 39%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Guayaquil City and 1.0 from Leones del Norte, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Guayaquil City to win. Guayaquil City are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.0), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
All two of the last meetings were drawn.
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