How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Técnico Universitario to win 46%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Técnico Universitario and 0.8 from Delfín, so Técnico Universitario come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Técnico Universitario to win. Técnico Universitario are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.8), and we make them about 48% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.88, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Delfín have won three of the last five meetings.
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