Bournemouth v Lincoln: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. We made Under 4.5 goals 83%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.3 goals from Bournemouth and 0.9 from Lincoln, so Bournemouth come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Bournemouth come into this on two straight draws. Lincoln come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.0 goals (xG 2.0-1.0), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 85%).

We put the chance of that landing at about 83 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.