How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Crystal Palace (Draw No Bet) 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Crystal Palace host Middlesbrough in the EFL Cup on 8 September 2026. Palace sit higher in the table than their opponents and are seen as the stronger side by the numbers, with an expected 1.9 goals against 0.9 for Boro. Both clubs played three days ago, so the short turnaround will be a factor for each. A win for Palace would push them further up the league and keep their cup run alive, while a Boro victory would see them climb and give them a chance to cause an upset.
Palace have been inconsistent in their last eight matches, winning two, drawing two and losing four. Their most recent result was a 3-2 win away at Fulham, which showed they can score but also concede heavily. Before that they suffered a 4-1 loss at home to Manchester City and a 2-0 defeat away to Everton. They did manage a 1-0 home win over Rayo Vallecano and a 2-1 loss to Arsenal at Selhurst Park. A 2-2 draw away at Brentford rounded off the run. In those eight games Palace have scored ten goals and let in seventeen, keeping only one clean sheet and failing to find the net twice. Six of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them, indicating a tendency for open games.
Middlesbrough have been much steadier, with five wins, two draws and just one loss in their last eight outings. Their latest triumph was a 1-0 away win at QPR, followed by a 1-1 draw away at Burnley. Prior to that they beat West Brom 3-1 at home, lost 2-1 away to Blackburn, edged Lincoln 2-1 at home and drew 2-2 away at Wrexham. The Boro are unbeaten in their last three games and have scored sixteen while conceding only eight in the eight-match stretch. They kept two clean sheets and have been involved in five games with three or more goals, while both teams scored in six of those matches, showing they can both attack and defend when needed.
When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to produce goals on both ends, and the recent form of each suggests a similar pattern could repeat. Palace’s defence has been leaky, while Middlesbrough have been tighter at the back. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring affairs, so we can expect an open contest with chances for each side.
Our pick is Crystal Palace on a draw-no-bet basis. The price of 1.33 matches our view of the game and the 78 % chance we give it of succeeding. The draw-no-bet option removes the risk of a level result, meaning only a Palace defeat would lose the stake. For the pick to go wrong, Palace would have to be shut out and concede at least one goal, or the match would need to finish level and the stake be returned. All other outcomes favor our selection.
Recent results
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