What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Sunderland and 1.0 from Hull, so Sunderland come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Hull come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.4 goals (xG 1.4-1.0), and two is enough to land it, landing about 75% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Sunderland have won three of their last five.
✓Hull have won three of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in one of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
22 Feb 2025Sunderland 0 - 1 Hull
20 Oct 2024Hull 0 - 1 Sunderland
19 Jan 2024Sunderland 0 - 1 Hull
26 Dec 2023Hull 0 - 1 Sunderland
7 Apr 2023Sunderland 4 - 4 Hull
