How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 49%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Leyton Orient and 1.3 from Bradford, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.5 goals (xG 1.3-1.3), and three is enough to land it, landing about 51% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Leyton Orient have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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