How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Newcastle to win 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Millwall and 2.0 from Newcastle, so Newcastle come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Newcastle to win. Newcastle shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-2.0), and we make them about 72% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.60, which works out at about 63 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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