How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 9. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 48%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Chelsea and 1.3 from Leeds, so Chelsea come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Leeds come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.1 goals between the two (xG 1.8-1.3), landing about 50% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
