Coventry v Aston Villa: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Coventry to score 1 or fewer 67%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.6 goals from Coventry and 1.5 from Aston Villa, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Coventry come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Coventry to score 1 or fewer. This is about Coventry's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.6 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 67%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.