What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Coventry and 1.4 from Aston Villa, so Coventry come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Aston Villa come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. There should be goals here — around 3.2 between the two (xG 1.7-1.4) — but they look like coming from one end. A clean sheet for one side is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.20, which works out at about 45 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
