What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Everton and 0.8 from Wolves, so Everton come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Everton to win. Everton are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.8), and we make them about 70% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Everton have won two of their last five.
✓Wolves have won three of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
7 Jan 2026Everton 1 - 1 Wolves
30 Aug 2025Wolves 2 - 3 Everton
8 Mar 2025Wolves 1 - 1 Everton
4 Dec 2024Everton 4 - 0 Wolves
30 Dec 2023Wolves 3 - 0 Everton
