What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Man United and 1.6 from Brighton, so Man United come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. There should be goals here — around 3.4 between the two (xG 1.9-1.6) — but they look like coming from one end. A clean sheet for one side is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.35, which works out at about 43 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Man United have won three of their last five.
✓Brighton have won two of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
24 May 2026Brighton 0 - 3 Man United
25 Oct 2025Man United 4 - 2 Brighton
19 Jan 2025Man United 1 - 3 Brighton
24 Aug 2024Brighton 2 - 1 Man United
19 May 2024Brighton 0 - 2 Man United
