How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Lech Poznan to win 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from Lech Poznan and 0.9 from Radomiak Radom, so Lech Poznan come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Lech Poznan come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Lech Poznan to win. Lech Poznan are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-0.9), and we make them about 70% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Lech Poznan have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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