What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from Ajax and 1.0 from Excelsior, so Ajax come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.0 goals (xG 2.0-1.0), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 73%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
