How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Both teams to score 63%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Willem II and 2.0 from For Sittard, so For Sittard come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.4-2.0), and we make both teams to score about 62%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
For Sittard have won two of the last four meetings, with two drawn.
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