How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.8 goals from Ajax and 0.8 from Willem II, so Ajax come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 3.5 goals (xG 2.7-0.8) and it takes five to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 75%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Ajax have won four of the last four meetings.
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