What to expect
We expect about 2.7 goals from Ajax and 0.8 from Willem II, so Ajax come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 3.5 goals (xG 2.7-0.8) and it takes five to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 75%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell.
