How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Telstar to score 75%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Heerenveen and 1.3 from Telstar, so Heerenveen come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Telstar to score. This is about Telstar's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Heerenveen have won two of the last two meetings.
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