How it turned out
We projected about 4.4 goals and the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Sparta Rotterdam to score 1 or fewer 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.4 goals from PSV Eindhoven and 1.0 from Sparta Rotterdam, so PSV Eindhoven come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Sparta Rotterdam to score 1 or fewer. This is about Sparta Rotterdam's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 75%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
PSV Eindhoven have won five of the last five meetings.
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