What to expect
We expect about 3.3 goals from PSV Eindhoven and 1.1 from Sparta Rotterdam, so PSV Eindhoven come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Correct score 3-0. This is our most likely exact scoreline for the game (xG 3.1-1.0). Correct score is a long shot by nature, so treat it as a small-stakes punt rather than a banker.
We put the chance of that landing at about 8 out of 100. The price on offer is 9.70, which works out at about 10 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Correct score is unforgiving: the right winner but the wrong number still loses. We make it about 8% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
