What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Zwolle and 2.1 from Feyenoord, so Feyenoord come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.3 goals (xG 1.2-2.1), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 77%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast.
