What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from AZ Alkmaar and 1.1 from Groningen, so AZ Alkmaar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
AZ Alkmaar come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Groningen to score 1 or fewer. This is about Groningen's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 71%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
AZ Alkmaar have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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