How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Heerenveen and 1.2 from Excelsior, so Heerenveen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 2.8 goals (xG 1.5-1.4), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 75%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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