What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Heerenveen and 1.4 from Excelsior, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 2.8 goals (xG 1.5-1.4), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 75%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Heerenveen have not won any of their last five.
✓Excelsior have won one of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
7 Mar 2026Excelsior 1 - 2 Heerenveen
4 Oct 2025Heerenveen 2 - 1 Excelsior
19 Jan 2024Excelsior 3 - 0 Heerenveen
23 Sept 2023Heerenveen 0 - 3 Excelsior
13 May 2023Heerenveen 0 - 0 Excelsior
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