What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Den Haag and 3.8 from PSV Eindhoven, so PSV Eindhoven come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.9 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Den Haag to score 1 or fewer. This is about Den Haag's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 76%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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