How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Feyenoord to win 67%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Telstar and 2.3 from Feyenoord, so Feyenoord come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Feyenoord come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Feyenoord to win. Feyenoord shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-2.3), and we make them about 69% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Feyenoord have won two of the last two meetings.
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