How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Willem II to score 1 or fewer 79%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Sparta Rotterdam and 0.9 from Willem II, so Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Willem II come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Willem II to score 1 or fewer. This is about Willem II's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 79%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Sparta Rotterdam have won four of the last four meetings.
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