How it turned out
The game finished with 1 goal. We made Under 3.5 goals 62%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. Low-scoring lean. The model projects about 2.9 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Heerenveen have won two of their last five.
✓Twente have won two of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent results
7 Feb 2026Twente 5 - 0 Heerenveen
24 Aug 2025Heerenveen 1 - 2 Twente
9 Feb 2025Heerenveen 3 - 3 Twente
17 Sept 2024Twente 2 - 0 Heerenveen
3 Apr 2024Heerenveen 3 - 3 Twente
Twente have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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