How it turned out
The game finished with 2 goals. We made Under 3.5 goals 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 3.1 goals in total (xG 1.2-1.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 64%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.67, which works out at about 60 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Ajax have won three of their last five.
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. At around 64% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
