How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Flora Tallinn to win 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.5 goals from Flora Tallinn and 0.9 from Pärnu JK Vaprus, so Flora Tallinn come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Pärnu JK Vaprus come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Flora Tallinn to win. Flora Tallinn are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.9), and we make them about 71% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Flora Tallinn have won five of the last five meetings.
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