How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Paide Linnameeskond to win 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Nõmme United and 2.2 from Paide Linnameeskond, so Paide Linnameeskond come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Paide Linnameeskond to win. Paide Linnameeskond shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-2.2), and we make them about 66% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Paide Linnameeskond have won five of the last five meetings.
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