How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Nõmme JK Kalju to win 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Tammeka and 1.8 from Nõmme JK Kalju, so Nõmme JK Kalju come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Nõmme JK Kalju to win. Nõmme JK Kalju shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.8), and we make them about 59% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Nõmme JK Kalju have won four of the last five meetings.
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