How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made FCI Levadia to win 81%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.7 goals from Narva Trans and 2.5 from FCI Levadia, so FCI Levadia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
FCI Levadia come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FCI Levadia to win. FCI Levadia shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-2.5), and we make them about 83% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
FCI Levadia have won five of the last five meetings.
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