How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Harju Jalgpallikool to win 51%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Harju Jalgpallikool host FC Kuressaare at home in the Meistriliiga on 18 September. Harju sit seventh in a ten-team table with 34 points from 28 games and a –7 goal difference. Kuressaare are ninth, also with 28 points but a –18 goal difference, sitting in the relegation zone. One place above Harju is Pärnu JK Vaprus, level on points, while Nõmme United sit just below Harju with six points fewer. The match could move Harju up a spot if they win, and it could see Kuressaare slip further towards the drop.
Harju’s recent form has been mixed. In their last three outings they beat Paide Linnameeskond 2-1 away, then fell 3-2 to Pärnu JK Vaprus away, and were beaten 2-0 by Tammeka at home. They have scored four goals and let in six in that stretch, failing to find the net once. Two of those games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in two of them. The win against Paide shows they can score, but the two defeats highlight defensive frailties.
Kuressaare have also had a roller-coaster run. Their last three results are a 3-1 loss to Tammeka at home, a 4-0 defeat to FCI Levadia away, and a 3-1 victory over Narva Trans at home. They have scored four and conceded eight, also going goalless in one match. Two of those games saw three or more goals and both teams scored in two of them. The recent win over Narva Trans gave them a brief lift, but the two heavy defeats underline their defensive problems.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be open, with both sides finding the net. The pattern of recent meetings suggests a match with several goals and chances for each team. Harju’s slightly better scoring record and Kuressaare’s recent defensive lapses point to a game where the home side should have the edge, but both are capable of scoring.
We pick Harju Jalgpallikool to win. The numbers put Harju at about 1.7 goals per game versus 1.1 for Kuressaare, and we see a 51 % chance of a Harju victory. The price of 1.99 matches our view of the game. For our pick to go wrong, Kuressaare would need to tighten up defensively and find a second goal, or Harju would have to fail to score at all, which is unlikely given an 82 % chance they will score. In our view, backing Harju to come out on top is the cleaner play.
Recent results
FC Kuressaare have won three of the last five meetings.
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