How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Rennes to win 50%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Sturm Graz and 1.9 from Rennes, so Rennes come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Rennes come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Rennes to win. Rennes shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.9), and we make them about 52% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.03, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
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