What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Sturm Graz and 1.4 from Rennes, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Rennes to win. Rennes shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.4), and we make them about 43% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.13, which works out at about 47 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Sturm Graz a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 42%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
