Leverkusen v NK Celje: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.7 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Leverkusen -1 (win by 2+) 65%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 3.0 goals from Leverkusen and 0.6 from NK Celje, so Leverkusen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

NK Celje come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Leverkusen -1 (win by 2+). Leverkusen to win this by two goals or more (xG 3.0-0.7). The handicap asks for more than just the win, which is why it pays what it does.

We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.