Benfica v Celtic: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Benfica to win 82%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Benfica host Celtic in the Europa League on 15 October. Benfica sit seventh out of 36, three points clear of the team above them, Ferencváros, and level with Bayer Leverkusen below. Celtic are down at 28th, with a –2 goal difference and no points from their opening game. Both clubs have just played four days ago, so fatigue could be a factor, but the table shows a clear gap between the two. A win for Benfica would keep them in the middle of the pack, while Celtic would still be fighting to climb out of the relegation zone.

Benfica have been in superb form over their last eight matches, winning seven and losing only once. The run began with a 2-0 home win over Guimarães, followed by a 3-1 away loss to Porto, then a 2-0 away victory against Milan. They continued with a 3-1 home win over Gil Vicente, a 4-0 away triumph over Moreirense and a 3-0 away success against Marítimo. In their three most recent home games they have won every one. Across those eight games they have scored 24 goals, let in just five and kept five clean sheets. Six of the matches featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in three of them.

Celtic’s last eight fixtures show a mixed picture. They have won five, lost three and have not drawn any. Their most recent result was a 2-0 away win at Motherwell. Before that they fell 1-0 at home to Rangers, then 3-1 at home to Ferencváros, and suffered a 3-0 away defeat to Rangers. They did manage a 1-0 home win over Spartans FC and a 1-0 away victory at St Johnstone. On the road Celtic have been strong lately, winning three of their last four away games. In total they have scored 10 and conceded 8, kept four clean sheets and have failed to find the net twice. Their recent 2-0 win shows they can still produce a result when they are on the front foot.

The two clubs have met before in this competition, and those meetings have usually produced a fair amount of scoring. The numbers we have suggest an open game with chances at both ends. Benfica are expected to find the net in almost every match, while Celtic are less likely to score at all. The pattern of recent games for both sides also points to a match where goals could come, especially from the home team.

We back Benfica to win. The price of 1.25 matches our view of the game and looks good. Benfica’s strong attack, solid defence and superior form give them a high chance of coming out on top. For our pick to fail, Celtic would need to score early and keep a clean sheet, something they have done only four times in their last eight games. If Celtic manage to limit Benfica’s chances and find a goal, the result could be tighter, but the balance of probability still favours a Benfica victory.