Lyon v Crystal Palace: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Lyon or Draw 71%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Lyon host Crystal Palace in the Europa League on 15 October. Lyon sit 11th in a 36-team table, three points from one game, with a +1 goal difference. Crystal Palace are much higher, second in the same table, also three points from one game but with a +4 goal difference. The two clubs are only a place apart from the teams that sit directly above and below them, so a win or a draw could move either side a place in the standings. Both sides have similar points totals, but the numbers we have suggest Lyon are the stronger side overall, and the game should offer chances at both ends.

Lyon’s recent form over the last eight matches shows a mixed picture. They lost 2-1 away to Lens, then bounced back with a 4-0 home win over Rennes. A 2-1 away victory against Anderlecht followed, and they were held to a 0-0 draw away at Paris FC. Back at home they beat Auxerre 3-1 and drew 1-1 with Le Havre. In those eight games Lyon have scored 13 goals and let in nine, keeping three clean sheets while failing to find the net twice. Four of the last eight matches have produced three or more goals and both sides have scored in four of them. Their last four home games give them two wins, one draw and one loss.

Crystal Palace have been less consistent in their last eight outings. Their most recent result was a 3-1 home win over Nottingham Forest, but before that they fell 2-0 at home to Bristol City. They then drew 0-0 away at Leeds, enjoyed a 4-0 home triumph over Lech Poznań, lost 3-2 at home to Ipswich and earlier beat Fulham 3-2 away. In total they have scored 13 and conceded 14, kept two clean sheets and have been shut out three times. Four of those games featured three or more goals and both teams scored in four matches. The side played just four days ago, so they arrive on a short turnaround.

The two clubs have met before, and those meetings have usually produced open affairs with goals on both sides. The pattern from the recent runs of both teams mirrors that history – games with three or more goals and both sides finding the net are common. Given the similar scoring rates and the fact that Lyon are playing at home, we can expect another match where chances are created at both ends and the scoreline stays close.

Our pick is Lyon or a draw. The price of 1.39 matches our own reading of the game and gives a sensible safety net without needing to pick the exact result. We think Lyon have the edge, but a draw is a realistic outcome given how often both sides have scored in recent games. The price looks good and we see a 71 % chance of our selection being right. It would go wrong if Palace manage to keep a clean sheet and score twice, or if Lyon fail to find the net at all, but those scenarios seem less likely.