What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Salzburg and 1.8 from Milan, so Milan come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Milan to win. Milan shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.8), and we make them about 50% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.08, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Salzburg are unbeaten in their last five — four wins and one draw.
✓Milan have won two of their last five.
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