Lech Poznan v Leverkusen: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.6 goals and the game finished with 4. We made Leverkusen to win 55%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Lech Poznan host Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League on 15 October. Leverkusen sit eighth out of 36 in the group, three points from the leader and level with the teams just above and below them. Lech are a home side that have been winning almost every game they have played recently. Both clubs are close on points, but the German side have a slightly better goal difference at +2. The match could decide who moves a little higher in the table and who stays in the middle of the pack.

Lech Poznan have been in superb form over their last eight matches, winning seven and losing only once. Their most recent win was a 5-1 victory over Radomiak Radom at home, before that they travelled to beat Slask Wroclaw 4-1. They also beat Rakow 1-0, Jagiellonia 2-1 and Widzew Lodz 3-2 away. The only slip was a 2-1 loss to Gornik Zabrze on the road. In those eight games they have scored 21 goals and let in just eight, keeping two clean sheets. At home they are perfect, four wins from four, and six of those eight games have produced three or more goals with both sides scoring in six of them.

Leverkusen have also been on a good run, winning four of their last eight games and drawing two. Their latest three results are a 4-3 away win at Mainz, a 2-0 home victory over RB Leipzig and a 2-0 home win against NK Celje. Before that they drew 2-2 away at Augsburg, beat Union Berlin 4-0 at home and suffered a 3-2 away defeat to Elversberg. In total they have found the net 18 times while conceding 12, with three clean sheets. Their road form in the last four matches is mixed – one win, one draw and two losses – but they have scored in five of the eight games and both sides have hit the net in five of those.

The two clubs have met before, and those meetings have usually been open affairs with goals on both ends. The numbers we have for this game point to a similar pattern – an average of 3.6 goals and a high chance that both teams will score. Lech have a 74 % chance of finding the net and a 39 % chance of scoring twice, while Leverkusen are even more likely with an 89 % chance to score and a 65 % chance of getting two or more goals. That suggests an attacking contest rather than a defensive slog.

We back Leverkusen to win. The price of 1.68 is shorter than what we think the game is worth, but the German side are the stronger outfit on the numbers, averaging more than two goals per game compared with Lech’s 1.4. Our chance of being right sits at 55 %. For Leverkusen to fail, they would need to be shut out completely or lose a very close game after conceding early. If Lech manage to keep a clean sheet and score first, the upset becomes more likely, but the balance still favours Leverkusen.