NK Celje v Omonia Nicosia: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Omonia Nicosia or Draw 67%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

NK Celje host Omonia Nicosia in a Europa League tie on 15 October 2026. Celje sit 31st of 36 with no points after one game and a –2 goal difference. Omonia sit 15th, also on one point but with a +1 goal difference. Both clubs are on the same zero-point tally, but Omonia are a full dozen places higher in the table. The win would lift Celje out of the bottom-five cluster, while Omonia would move a step closer to the mid-table safe zone. The numbers show Omonia as the stronger side, but the chance of goals on both ends is high, pointing to an open contest.

Celje’s last eight matches have produced four wins, one draw and three defeats. The most recent result was a 1-0 home win over Aluminij, followed by a 0-0 away draw with Mura. Before that they fell 2-0 away at Bayer Leverkusen and 2-1 away to NK Bravo. Earlier in the run they beat AEK Athens 2-0 away, then suffered a 4-0 home loss to the same AEK side. In those eight games Celje have scored ten and let in twelve, kept three clean sheets and failed to find the net three times. Their three home games in the run yielded two wins and one loss, showing they can be solid at home.

Omonia Nicosia have also compiled four wins, one draw and three defeats in their last eight outings. They arrive on the back of three straight victories: a 3-0 away win at Karmiotissa, a 4-1 home triumph over Krasava Ypsonas and a 1-0 home success against Celta Vigo. Prior to that they drew 0-0 with Apollon Limassol at home, then lost 3-1 away to HNK Rijeka and 1-0 at home to the same Rijeka side. Across those eight games Omonia have scored ten and conceded six, kept four clean sheets and have been shut out three times. Their recent road form is two wins and one loss, indicating they can find the net away from home while staying defensively tight.

We back Omonia Nicosia or a draw at 1.46. The price matches our reading of a close, attacking game where both teams are likely to score. Omonia’s recent three-game winning streak and better goal difference give them the edge, but Celje’s home form and the high probability of both sides scoring keep the draw in play. The pick should succeed about two-thirds of the time. It would go wrong if Celje manage to hold a clean sheet and score twice while Omonia are shut out, or if the match turns into a low-scoring affair despite the numbers.