Besiktas v Marseille: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Besiktas to win 38%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Besiktas host Marseille in a Europa League tie on 17 September 2026. Besiktas sit higher in the table while Marseille are 22nd of 36 with no points from any game so far. The gap between them and the teams around them is only a single place and a single point. Both clubs have the same goal difference of zero, so the match could move them up or down the table. The two sides are almost evenly matched on the numbers we have, which suggests an open game with chances at both ends.

Besiktas come into this game on a good run. In their last eight matches they have won five, drawn one and lost two. The most recent results are a 3-0 win over Erzurumspor at home, a 2-1 win at Fenerbahce, a 6-2 win over Corum at home, a 1-0 loss at Alanyaspor, a 1-0 win over Eyupspor at home and a 2-2 draw away at Rizespor. That gives them three straight wins now. At home they have won three of their last four games, scoring 17 goals and conceding eight in the eight-match stretch. They kept three clean sheets and were shut out once. Five of those games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them.

Marseille have struggled in recent weeks. Their last eight outings produced three wins, one draw and four defeats. The latest results are a 1-0 loss away to Rennes, a 3-2 loss at home to Paris FC, a 2-0 loss away to Monaco, a 4-0 win at home over Strasbourg, a 3-1 win at home against Rennes and a 1-0 win away at Le Havre. They have now lost three games in a row. On the road they have one win and three losses in their last four away matches. In the eight-game run they have scored 11 and let in 11. They kept two clean sheets but failed to score in three games. Four of those matches saw three or more goals and both teams scored in three of them. Their most recent game was a narrow 1-0 defeat at Rennes.

The two clubs have met before, but the record is not given, so we cannot comment on past head-to-head. Based on the numbers, both sides are likely to find the net. Besiktas have an 82 % chance of scoring at least once and a 51 % chance of scoring twice or more. Marseille have an 81 % chance of scoring at all and a 49 % chance of scoring twice. The total goal expectation is about 3.4, which points to a game with plenty of action.

We pick Besiktas to win. The price of 1.87 is shorter than what we feel the match deserves. We think Besiktas have about a 38 % chance of coming out on top, which is the highest chance among the outcomes. The price looks good for a side that is on three straight wins and has a solid home record. The pick could go wrong if Marseille find a way to break through the home defence and score early, or if Besiktas fail to convert any of their chances. In that case the game could slip into a draw or a narrow loss for the hosts.