How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Levski Sofia (Draw No Bet) 75%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Levski Sofia and 0.8 from Red Bull Salzburg, so Levski Sofia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Levski Sofia (Draw No Bet). Levski Sofia are favoured here (xG 1.8-0.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Levski Sofia defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.15, which works out at about 47 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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