What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Crystal Palace and 1.6 from Lech Poznan, so Lech Poznan come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Lech Poznan to win. Lech Poznan shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.6), and we make them about 55% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 7.33, which works out at about 14 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Crystal Palace to spoil this. We only make this about 55%, so it's far from a lock.
