How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. We made Crystal Palace to win 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Crystal Palace and 0.8 from Lech Poznan, so Crystal Palace come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Crystal Palace to win. Crystal Palace are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.8), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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