Juventus v Nijmegen: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Juventus to win 71%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Juventus host Nijmegen in a Europa League tie on 17 September 2026. Both clubs sit in the middle of a 36-team table, Juventus 18th and Nijmegen 23rd, each with zero points and a neutral goal difference. The two are only a few places apart, with Hoffenheim just above Juventus and Lech Poznań just below, while Marseille sit above Nijmegen and OFI Crete below. With nothing to lose and everything to gain, a win will lift either side out of the bottom half and bring them closer to the safety zone.

Juventus have played eight games in recent weeks, three wins, three draws and two defeats. Their most recent result was a 3-2 loss away to Sassuolo. Before that they drew 1-1 with Milan at home, beat Parma 2-0 at home and won 1-0 away at Frosinone. They then drew 2-2 away at Torino and suffered a 2-0 home defeat to Fiorentina. In those eight matches they have scored ten goals and let in nine. They kept three clean sheets and were shut out once. Two of the games featured three or more goals and in four matches both sides found the net. Their last four home outings produced one win, two draws and one loss.

Nijmegen come into the game after eight fixtures that gave them three victories, one draw and four defeats. Their latest outing was a 3-0 away loss to Cambuur. Prior to that they drew 2-2 with Excelsior at home, lost 3-1 at home to Feyenoord, then beat Zwolle 3-1 away and Willem II 4-1 away. Their most recent home defeat was 2-1 to Telstar. Over the eight games they have scored fourteen and conceded fifteen. They failed to score in one match. Every game has seen at least three goals and in seven of them both teams scored. On the road they have won two and lost two in their last four trips. Their last match was five days ago.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have been open affairs with goals on both ends. The pattern fits the current numbers, which suggest an attacking contest. Juventus are expected to find the net in almost every game and to score twice or more in three-quarters of their matches. Nijmegen are less likely to score, but they do find the net in more than half of their games and can score twice on rare occasions. The statistical picture points to a game where Juventus will create the most chances, yet Nijmegen will still have a chance to get on the scoresheet.

We back Juventus to win. The price of 1.22 is shorter than our own reading of the match, which gives Juventus about a 71 % chance of coming out on top. The numbers show Juventus averaging roughly 2.7 goals per game compared with Nijmegen’s 0.8, and the home side have a 93 % chance of scoring at all. For our pick to fail, Nijmegen would need to score twice and keep Juventus from finding the net, something that has only happened in about one-in-five of Nijmegen’s games. All things considered, the simplest and safest choice is to back Juventus to take the three points.