How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Hoffenheim to win 56%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
OFI Crete host Hoffenheim in a Europa League tie on 17 September 2026. Both clubs sit in the middle of the 36-team table, OFI Crete in 24th place and Hoffenheim in 17th. Neither side has any points yet, and both have a neutral goal difference of zero. A win will move the victor up a place while the loser stays where they are, so the three points are the only thing that matters.
OFI Crete come into this game on a hot streak. In their last eight matches they have won six and lost two. The most recent results are a 1-0 win away at Olympiakos, a 3-0 victory at home over Nestos Chrisoupolis, two 2-0 home wins against Kifisia FC, a 2-1 loss away to Aris and a 2-0 home win over Volos NFC. All five of their home games in that run have been wins, giving them five clean sheets at home. In those eight games they have scored 16 goals and let in six, with four matches seeing three or more goals and three of those being games where both sides scored.
Hoffenheim have also found a little rhythm, but theirs is less consistent. Their last eight outings produced four wins, one draw and three defeats. The latest fixtures are a 2-1 home win over VfB Stuttgart, a repeat 2-1 win over the same side, a 3-2 home loss to Dortmund, a 3-2 away loss to FC Koln, a 4-0 away defeat to M’gladbach and a 1-0 home win over Werder Bremen. They have won their last two games, but on the road they have one win and two losses in the past three trips. Over the eight matches they have scored 14 and conceded 16, keeping only one clean sheet and being shut out once. Seven of those games have produced three or more goals, and in six both teams found the net.
When the two clubs have met before the games have tended to be open affairs with goals on both ends. The numbers we have for this encounter suggest a similar pattern: we expect about 3.5 goals in total, with OFI Crete likely to score once and Hoffenheim twice. Both sides have a high chance of scoring – 73 % for OFI Crete and 89 % for Hoffenheim – and the odds of each side scoring two or more are also respectable. The picture is of a match where chances will be created at both ends and a result could be decided by a single moment.
Our pick is Hoffenheim to win. The price of 1.42 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, but the odds still give a decent return for a side that is expected to score more often and has a higher probability of scoring twice. We see a 56 % chance of this result happening. For Hoffenheim to drop points they would need to be shut out, something that has only happened once in their recent run, and they would have to keep OFI Crete from scoring, which is less likely given the Greek side’s 73 % chance of finding the net. If both teams manage to score and the match stays tight, the result could swing, but the numbers still favour Hoffenheim.
Recent results
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
